diff --git a/source/notes/1-20.ptx b/source/notes/1-20.ptx index ba7c803..3788e26 100644 --- a/source/notes/1-20.ptx +++ b/source/notes/1-20.ptx @@ -13,6 +13,26 @@ + + HW 1 Q5 + +

+ Write F for the event that there's a fire and S for the event that there's visible smoke. + Then the information we're given can be interpreted as: + + \Pr(F) \amp = 0.01 + \Pr(S) \amp = 0.1 + \Pr(S\mid F) \amp = 0.9 + + In this case, we can use the simpler version of Bayes' Theorem: + + \Pr(F \mid S) = \frac{\Pr(S \mid F)\Pr(F)}{\Pr(S)} = \dotsb + + Unlike our usual diagnostic testing examples, we do have access to the denominator probability here. +

+
+ + Sec 2.1: Random Variables