+ HW 1 Q5
+
+
+ Write F for the event that there's a fire and S for the event that there's visible smoke.
+ Then the information we're given can be interpreted as:
+
+ \Pr(F) \amp = 0.01
+ \Pr(S) \amp = 0.1
+ \Pr(S\mid F) \amp = 0.9
+
+ In this case, we can use the simpler version of Bayes' Theorem:
+
+ \Pr(F \mid S) = \frac{\Pr(S \mid F)\Pr(F)}{\Pr(S)} = \dotsb
+
+ Unlike our usual diagnostic testing examples, we do have access to the denominator probability here.
+
+
+
+