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Math 1044 Notes

Section 5.3 Power of a Test

Text of section.

Exercises Exercises

1.

Suppose we find a coin and wonder whether it’s fair. As a first test, we decide to flip the coin 200 times and count the number of heads, \(S\text{.}\) What values of \(S\) would be extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis of a fair coin? If the coin actually has a 0.6 probability of coming up heads, what is the power of this test?

2.

Suppose we have a coin which we suspect comes up heads more often than a fair coin would. As a first test, we decide to flip the coin 200 times and count the number of heads, \(S\text{.}\) What values of \(S\) would be extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis of a fair coin? If the coin actually has a 0.6 probability of coming up heads, what is the power of this test?

3.

Suppose we find a six-sided die and wonder whether it’s fair. As a first test, we decide to roll the die 100 times and count the number of times it comes up 1. The expected number of 1’s is 50/3, with a variance of 125/9.
(a)
Using a normal approximation, what is the smallest number of 1’s greater than 50/3 that would be extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis of a fair die?
(b)
Using a normal approximation, what is the greatest number of 1’s less than 50/3 that would be extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis of a fair die?
(c)
Suppose that this die is weighted so that it rolls a 1 with probability 0.2. What would be the power of our test?
(d)
Suppose we roll the die 100 times and see 23 1’s. Use the maximum likelihood value for the probability of rolling a 1 to calculate the power of the test.

4.

Suppose a particular plant when grown outdoors has an average height of 39 in with a variance of 20 in\(^2\text{.}\) We suspect that growing this plant in a greenhouse will increase its height. We take the average height of a sample of 50 plants grown in a greenhouse. What is the minimum average height of this sample that would be extreme enough to reject the null hypothesis of equal means at the \(p = 0.05\) significance level? If the plants, when grown in a greenhouse, would truly have an average height of 41 in, what is the power of our test?